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FLASH POLL: Minnesota Republicans Predict Marriage Amendment Will Fail in Tuesday Election

Despite support from the Minnesota GOP, Patch's panel thinks the amendment to define marriage as a union between one man and one woman will fall short.

Twin Cities Republicans aren't confident the so-called Marriage Amendment will make its way into the constitution after Tuesday's general election. 

In a flash poll issued Friday to Patch's panel of Republican politicians and activists, the majority believed the amendment, which requires a "yes" vote to be added to the constitution by voters, would fall short. 

About 57 percent of the 33 survey responders said the amendment would fall short. 

Our Republican panel also felt Barack Obama, running to remain president, had conducted a better campaign in Minnesota, a state he's favored to win in Tuesday night's election. 

"It's going to be exceedingly close, on the Presidential race and on both amendment questions," one pundit said. 

The Repbulicans were confident they would get a victory with the so-called Voter I.D. amendment, which would force residents in Minnesota to show photo identification at the polls in future elections. In comments, they said Voter I.D. could pass by a "wide margin." 

One GOPer said Minnesota would go to Obama, but it would be "one of the few states he will win. At least it won't be as embarassing when Minnesota was the only state that voted Democrat for Mondale." 

The majority of our panel thought the two amendment questions would have little to no effect on the presidential turnout, and vice versa. Romney's success might give the "Vote Yes" campaign on both sides a bit of a boost, they said in comments to Patch. 

The Red Twin Cities Survey

Our surveys are not a scientific, random sample of any larger population, but rather an effort to listen to a group of influential local Republican activists, party leaders, candidates and elected officials in Minnesota. All of these individuals have agreed to participate in Minnesota Patch’s surveys, although not all responded to this story’s questions. 

Patch will be conducting Red Twin Cities and Blue Twin Cities surveys throughout the 2012 election season in hopes of determining the true sentiment of conservatives and progressives on the ground in Minnesota. If you are an activist, party leader or elected official and would like to take part in periodic surveys that last just a few minutes, please contact Associate Regional Editor Mike Schoemer at mike.schoemer@patch.com.

Red Twin Cities Roster: Sara Anderson (candidate for State House), John Anderson (campaign chair, Palmer for House), David Arvidson (SD 46 candidate), Rep. Mike Beard (HD 35), Bryan Bjornson (Republican activist), Joe Blum (District 52A candidate), Mike Boguszewski (Congressional Dist. 4), Reed Bornholdt (Richfield GOP), Christopher Burns (Woodbury), Nick Caron (campaign mgr. Tuschy for House), Roger Champagne (SD 46 candidate), Matt Chase (treasurer Dist. 46), Steve Cherney, Janalee Cooper, David Cote (Honeywell CEO), Jennifer DeJournett (VOICES of Conservative Women founder), Rep. Bob Dettmer (39A), Don Dickerson (Roseville GOP), Bob Erickson (Lakeville School Board), Kelley Fenton (GOP deputy chair MN), Chris Fields, David FitzSimmons (HD 30B), Mark Fotsch (HD 66A), Hal Fotsch (Dist. 39 organizer), Sen. David Gaither, Stan Genadek, David Gerson (Candidate for Congress), Dennis Gilliespe (Richfield), Richard Glasgow (Washington Co. GOP), Sen. David Hahn, Tim Hall, Sen. Dan Hall, Garold Healy (Hopkins mayoral candidate), Mike Held (SD46 GOP), Dale Helm (candidate 41A), Rep. Mary Liz Holberg, Jeanne Holland (STMA Schools), Sue Holman McCarville (Hopkins GOP), Karin Housley (SD 39), Terry Jacobsen (House Dist. 49B), Arylahn Johnson (HD 49B), Mark Johnson (chair of SD 56), Reid Johnson (candidate for HD 45B), Mike Kaess (SD 51 chair), Emilie Kastner, Rep. Andrea Kieffer (HD 56), Rep. Mary Kiffmeyer (SD 30 candidate), Former Sen. Amy Koch (former majority leader), Jon Koznick, Don Lee, Sen. Ted Lillie (Woodbury), Sen. Warren Limmer, Terry McCall, Rep. Joe McDonald (Delano), Mike McGinn, Mike McCllean, Cory Merrifeld (Save the Vikes.org), Gary Mertz (SD49 Communications), Former Sen. Geoff Michel, Dan Morehead (GOP activist), Andrew Mullin (Wayzata city council), Rep. Pam Myhra (Burnsville), Richard Novack (delegate), Kevin O’Donovan (Richfield GOP), Jon Olson (former campaign manager for Chris Fields), Laura Palmer (HD 41), Sarah Patzloff (Edina schools), Jeff Pauley, Rep. Joyce Peppin (Rogers/Maple Grove), Roz Peterson (Lakeville), Camden Pike (Party chair, SD41), Lt. Col. Alex Plechash (head of MN Org. of GOP Vets), Bill Pulkrabek (Washington Co. Commission), Dwight Rabuse (SD 52 candidate), Erik Radtke (staffer, Emmer for Gov.), John Rheinberger (Wash Co. GOP), former Sen. Claire Robling, Mitch Rossow (SD 61 secretary), Chuck Roulet (SD 32 co-chair), Bron Scherer (MN GOP treasurer), Donna Schmidt, Al Schneider (Kline for Congress), Paul Scofield (HD 46), Joe Slamon (SD 53 chair), Chris Soukup, Mark Stefan (HD44B challenger), Rep. Kirk Stensrud (H 48A), Brett Steven (SD 62 secretary), Tom Swain (former mayor of Lilydale), Sen. John Swanson, Lynn Swon, Sen Roy Terwilliger, Sen. Dave Thompson, Blair Tremere (Golden Valley ex-mayor), Paul Tuschy (HD 52B candidate), Shaji Varghese (HD 51A chair), Lynn Wardlow, Tiana Wells (national delegate), Aramis Wells (Ron Paul for Pres.), Mark Westphal (HD 39 chair), Tim Wilkin (former state rep.), former Rep. Kelby Woodard (Northfield), Mark Zasadny (national GOP delegate), Hannah Zasadny (local delegate), Dennis Holman (SD 45), Candace Oathout (District 45 GOP), Jeff Kolb (Fields for Congress) and Rep. Kurt Zellers, Speaker of the House.

Al Anderson November 06, 2012 at 01:44 PM
Mike -- I will say this again on this election day -- this Red & Blue thing has been a complete embarrassment. Doesn't provide anything but partisan information - and flash polls are not true statistical polls? What has been the point of this?
Daryl Fryxell November 06, 2012 at 01:46 PM
Public opinion manipulation. That is all this is. Come on, people. A non-scientific, non-poll means nothing. The state controlled media always pulls this stuff right before an election. Don't believe it. Vote.
Randy Marsh November 06, 2012 at 03:17 PM
Welcome to the choir, Al.
Al Anderson November 06, 2012 at 05:45 PM
Randy -- I've been saying this the first "Red" article was put on the Patch. While I know you and I likely disagree on most everything else.....it would appear that you and I agree on the silliness of this Red & Blue thing. Schoemer could be spending his time on more meaningful events or studying up on what a representative system of government actually means.
Randy Marsh November 06, 2012 at 06:02 PM
Glad we agree, Al. I just searched and found what appears to be my first rant back on July 7. "10:18 am on Saturday, July 7, 2012 Sorry Patch, but this whole little survey and series is a really bad idea and a complete waste of time. It appears most have already figured this out. What exactly is to be gained from polling GOP or DFL "leaders", whatever that means, especially when I presume they are only voting once in November. Wouldn't polling of actual citizens or, God forbid, moderates from either party or independent voters be far more enlightening? I already know how the Tony Suttons, Michael Brodkorbs, Bill Pulkrabeks, Amy Kochs and Bradlee Deans feel about the issues and it's also not a stretch to figure out how DFL leaders (whatever that means) feel about November either. Not only is this incredibly lazy (do you guys do anything besides run unscientific polls to illicit comments anymore?), but it accomplishes nothing. How about a story on how the Minnesota GOP is doing raising $2 million to pay off their debts from the last election cycle or what the DFLers are trying to do to offset the pummeling they took the last time out? Please sell me on why this is not a really stupid idea because right now it appears lazy and irrelevant."

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