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Poll: What Impact Will the Ryan Choice Have on Romney's Campaign?

While many conservatives hail Romney's choice of the Wisconsin representative, others say it's an indication of just how desperate the presumptive GOP nominee is to win the affection of people in his own party.

 

Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty has been passed over again as the GOP's vice presidential nominee—this time by Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan, named this morning by Mitt Romney as his running mate.

Pundits are already speculating about the impact that Ryan, the chief architect of the Republican Party’s plan for tax and spending cuts, will have on Romney's campaign.

The New York Times says that the choice of Ryan, an advocate of reshaping the Medicare program of health insurance for retirees, means the Obama campaign can portray its opponents as "two men who would strip health coverage for retirees and favor the wealthy."

Some party conservatives, however, had been lobbying for Romney to choose Ryan; according to the Times, they see his proposed budget as the key to unlocking the economy’s potential.

Who's right? Minnesota and Wisconsin are "purple states," with urban areas that lean Democratic surrounded by rural areas that tend to be Republican. So we're curious about how Twin Cities area residents feel. Vote on whether you think the choice of Ryan makes a GOP victory more or less likely in November, and tell us why in the comments.

Orono August 25, 2012 at 06:05 AM
For the record, my father was an abusive alcoholic ass. He drank himself to death a long time ago. If you want to pretend to be him, have at it. Just the fact you can spell Orono makes you already smarter than he ever was.
Susan August 25, 2012 at 01:51 PM
Good morning, Orono. First, I didn't "demand" a budget from Mitt Romney, I simply answered your accusation of focusing on social issues, with a statement that said if Romney would put out a budget, we would have something else to talk about. It would be nice if President Obama could get a budget passed, but your statement (like Romney's) is not fully true. From PolitiFact: "In his speech, Romney faulted Obama for failing to pass a budget. He was correct that the two times Congress voted on the president’s budget requests, both times they were voted down. But the job of passing a budget resolution is not the president’s. That responsibility falls to Congress, and even then the president doesn’t sign it. As Ellis, our expert, put it: "The president has no role in passing a budget. The president can cajole Congress about passing a budget and advocate for positions and funding levels, but in the end, Congress approves the budget resolution for their own purposes." That’s the difference between this and other claims we’ve rated which blamed Congress for inaction on the budget. Romney’s statement contains a grain of truth, in that two of Obama’s budget requests failed to pass. But citing those votes leaves a wrong impression -- namely that the votes were anything more than political theater. Romney omitted the more critical information that passing a federal budget is the job of Congress. Given all that, we rate his statement Mostly False."
Susan August 25, 2012 at 02:03 PM
"We’re a team of about 100 volunteers dedicated to countering the constant negative drumbeat of our mainstream media. In the past two years, over 400 steps forward have been taken by the Obama administration, yet the media, driven by corporate self-interest, and disaffection with Obama on both the right and left, continues to focus only on any negatives they can construct a narrative around. To push back against this destructive bias, we’re building a crowd-sourced compilation of the achievements of the Obama administration, with well-sourced documentation for each achievement linked to it for easy contextual navigation. It’s a work in progress and a labor of love — for our country. Defining what an achievement is in any administration, is itself an interesting issue. We decided that we would define it broadly to include executive orders,important legislation, and significant initiatives or outcomes of any kind, both foreign and domestic. We worked hard to screen out minor or subjective items whenever we had agreement on them. As anyone can see from this very impressive list, they weren’t needed." http://obamaachievements.org/list
Smokin' Joe August 25, 2012 at 02:33 PM
"Defining what an achievement is in any administration, is itself an interesting issue. We decided that we would define it broadly...." My goodness! He not only killed bin Ladin, saved the world, and ended global warming, but the sun came up too? Wonder what he'll do this afternoon?
Susan August 25, 2012 at 02:41 PM
Yes, I know. I'm surprised you didn't point out that he got his girls a puppy - listed in the misc section. ;-) I posted the link because Patch only allows for so many characters. It's easier than going through the entire list and picking out the important stuff. I like this site because it lists everything with sources, which I feel is important. I'm just a little tired of people saying the man can't run on his record because he hasn't accomplished anything - or when they point to Gitmo...it's still open, but wow, what a thing to focus on!
Susan August 25, 2012 at 02:48 PM
Thanks Joe, Donald, and Edward (from above). So are you saying that job growth is indeed dependent on assuring the small business owner that there will be no new taxes or regulations? Doesn't this then mean that we will be relying on the trickle down effect? Aren't there additional ways that we can get businesses to release some of that (supposed) $2 trillion that they are holding onto right now? http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/leverage-big-businesses-2-trillion-in-idle-capital-to-relieve-small-business-credit-crunch-says-renowned-author-163852276.html
Edward August 25, 2012 at 03:17 PM
A few highlights Caught more Taliban Leaders in one month than Bush/Cheney did in six years. Banks have repaid 75% of TARP funds, bringing the cost down to $89B as of June 2010. Derivatives must be traded transparently through a clearing house (DF). Credit Card Accountability, Responsibility and Disclosure Act. Created new criminal penalties for mortgage fraud. Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act; Instituted equal pay for women. Enacted largest reform of student aid in 40 years. Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. Required insurance companies to cover pre-existing conditions. Prevented children from being refused health insurance coverage. Required health plans to disclose how much of the premium goes to patient care. Cut prescription drug costs for Medicare recipients by 50% and began eliminating the plan’s gap (“donut hole”) in coverage. Tax bills hit lowest level since 1950.
Smokin' Joe August 25, 2012 at 03:22 PM
Susan, It's not that he couldn't run on his record, it's just that it wouldn't be to his advantage. In order to get elected he basically promised everything to everybody. Touting the fact that Michelle gave a speech at some club somewhere and said something about something doesn't really count as following through in my book. Considering the man had a political blank check for the first two years of his presidency he has actually accomplished surprisingly little of consequence.
Smokin' Joe August 25, 2012 at 03:33 PM
Susan, In my opinion it is only the uncertainty in the tax and regulatory system that's keeping everybody on the sidelines. Most of us realize that tax revenue must go up and spending must go down. After that it's a crap shoot as to who's going to get the mine and who gets the shaft. How can you make a business decision when there's no way to predict the consequences? For that matter, how do you decide personally whether to fund the tax-deferred plan or pay the taxes. We are all waiting to see what's going to happen once something happens. We are currently leaderless.
Smokin' Joe August 25, 2012 at 03:42 PM
Edward, yes, that's a partial list of things that have occurred in the last couple of years. Some are good, some are bad, some have consequences that we can't even predict yet. Whether it's to his credit or not, the only thing most would recognize as Obama's is the health insurance reform debacle. Meanwhile, we're still in Afghanistan, the economy blows, unemployment is over 8%, and Dodd/Frank is as unfinished as Obamacare. The guy made really big promises and you are celebrating really little stuff.
Susan August 25, 2012 at 03:49 PM
I understand what you are saying. But I will ask, again with sincerity - what could/can Obama do?
Smokin' Joe August 25, 2012 at 04:11 PM
What can Obama do? In general? Hire some smart people to explain economics, business, foreign affairs, and pretty much everything else to him. Follow through on what he says he's going to do, even if it's not going to please everybody. Stop being so afraid of Nancy Pelosi. Stop kissing Ben Bernanke's a**. Get a spine and stop worrying about the politics and lead from the front for a while. Do that whole post-partisan, post-racial thing that got my kids to vote for him. In specific? Simplified tax code. Keystone pipeline. Tell Afghanistan to take a hike. Stop wasting my tax dollars on campaigning.
Susan August 25, 2012 at 04:26 PM
I completely agree with the simplified tax code, and Afghanistan - but I have to wonder, since he did start the process of getting us out of Iraq, but not Afghanistan, is there some intelligence that the top brass has that the public is not privy to. Having said that, I still think we should stop policing the world! As far as the campaigning goes...doesn't every sitting president do this when running for reelection? But still nothing about jobs? Or is that what you were talking about when referencing hiring smarter people and simplifying the tax code? I will be honest and say that I don't know enough about Keystone to form an opinion, but I have heard the argument (please correct my errors), that it wouldn't be enough oil to make it worthwhile.?.? "Get a spine and stop worrying about the politics and lead from the front for a while. Do that whole post-partisan, post-racial thing that got my kids to vote for him. " I completely agree with your statement above, but I wonder how much the current (I realize not the first two years) Congress can stop this sort of thing from happening.
Edward August 25, 2012 at 04:45 PM
I'd argue that the Affordable Care Act was big stuff. Huge. It's saving my family over $5,000 this year (kids out of college and with jobs that give no benefits, but under age 26 who can stay on our plan, so we don't have to pay COBRA every month for them). For that alone my vote is for Obama. Romney wants to repeal ACA and take that benefit away from our family.
Edward August 25, 2012 at 04:50 PM
Plus, Ryan's plan is to privatize social security and make Medicare into a coupon (voucher) system, all while they support further tax cuts for the wealthy. I can't support further impoverishing the middle class. I paid into those systems (social security and Medicare) through payroll deductions thoughout my life as an investment in my retirement security, and now he wants to pull the rug out from under me. That's just not cool, man.
Smokin' Joe August 25, 2012 at 04:59 PM
Simplifying the tax code would help remove the uncertainty that most businesses face right now. Have a legitimate vision and sell it. If I believed that our country was on the right path economically it would be easier to jusify hiring more help. As it is right now I have to factor in how we're all going to pay for this mess and the likelihood that any new hires are going to cost a fortune in benefits. I and others should be running our businesses, not worrying about the government going broke. It's true that Keystone wouldn't make that much of a difference in production, but it's the message sent that's the killer. It's the same old "my political enemies like it so therefore I'm against it" silliness that paralyzes our government. The willingness of our leaders to do damage to our country for political gain convinces me that our upcoming "solutions" may be just as irrational. Obama can no longer do anything permanent about the job situation except get government out of the way.
Donald Lee August 25, 2012 at 05:07 PM
The political logic of "the changes will benefit me financially" as a reason to vote for a candidate implies that we should vote for whoever is better at raiding the treasury and passing out goodies. I think Edward would agree that that would be very bad. The health care changes (i.e. pre-existing conditions, stay on policy 'till 26) are being done at SOMEONE's cost. The taxes paid is only part of it. The real cost is the limitation/regulation of providers - doctors, insurance companies, and other health care providers, who are quasi-nationalized via heavy regulation. Some believe that the changes will drive many of these providers out of business. Doctors are already making noises about retiring specifically because of the changes - higher costs and more duties, and less pay. The insurance industry is already driving out small providers. Note the news articles recently about companies dropping child-only policies. When the doctors have quit, and the insurance companies are out of business, what good will this "law" be? Nothing comes for free. If it were a matter of passing laws, we could simply pass a law that says "everyone will have X". It doesn't work that way, and we all know that. Relying on measures like the PPACA to get things done is wishful thinking at best. At worst, it is corrupt, craven, and dishonest.
Susan August 25, 2012 at 05:22 PM
Thanks for all the input, Joe. We agree on many points, most certainly on: " The willingness of our leaders to do damage to our country for political gain convinces me that our upcoming "solutions" may be just as irrational." I feel that out leaders have gotten so politically polarized that our system is now more about obstructing the other side vs. doing what is truly best for the American people. I don't know that a Romney administration would be any better than what we currently have, when it comes to this issue. Somehow the people must demand the changes needed to stop 'big money' (on both sides) from dictating what happens in D.C. My fear is that the individual vote really won't make any differences anymore until the money problem is fixed.
Smokin' Joe August 25, 2012 at 05:32 PM
The Affordable Care Act may be big stuff, we'll just have to wait to find out what's in it. Our children are healthy and our health insurance bill for them is around $100 a month each on our policy. Same policy would be about $15 a month more on their own so there seems to be a savings, although the overall premium went up 18% after the ACA passed so it's impossible to know for sure. Portability is a plus, but pre-existing condition coverage is wrapped into the overall policy so we're all paying for those who would otherwise be uninsurable. I stopped thinking of social security as an investment in the 80's after my grandmother collected about $50 for every $1 contributed by my grandfather. I stopped even considering it as part of my retirement planning in the 90's. It's likely that it will be means tested in the not-too-distant future which will probably wipe out most of us with any other retiremment, even though it's actually supposed to be structured as an insurance policy. Even if Romney were to get it repealed there's no reason for the insurance companies to eliminate carrying a 26 year old on your policy. That's simply good business on their part and they capture the healthiest segment of the population which they otherwise would likely lose. As long as we're each concerned only with how we personally benefit it's not likely that there will be a reasonable real solution, and 2700 pages speaks volumes about personal benefit.
Edward August 25, 2012 at 05:33 PM
"The health care changes (i.e. pre-existing conditions, stay on policy 'till 26) are being done at SOMEONE's cost. " That's where individual mandate comes in. No more healthcare system freeloaders. "we should vote for whoever is better at raiding the treasury and passing out goodies. I think Edward would agree that that would be very bad." It's not raiding the treasury if we ask the wealthy to pay their fair share of taxes like they did back in the 50's. If the Republican party wants to turn the clock back to the 1950's (ban abortion, put gays back into the closet, etc), then let's take tax rates back to the 50's too, when top rate was 94% for the wealthy vs. the 35% it is (and none of them pay that much with loopholes and deductions most pay 15-16% like Romney) today. The policies the right wants to put into place will eliminate our already dwindling middle class. This isn't "raiding the treasury", it's making sure we have a middle class in this country. Without it we won't have a Democracy much longer.
Susan August 25, 2012 at 05:37 PM
Donald, you and I don't need to rehash all this, but I will make one point. If a 'socialized' medicine will force all doctors to quit, why hasn't this happened in all the countries that have socialized medicine? I know about the wait times, and people traveling here for medical care etc., I just want to point out that all the doctors will not quit. And for the record, people are traveling outside the US for less expensive care, as well as those coming here for care. I have not read the 2,800 pages, so I will trust you when saying there are many bad parts of ObamaCare. But (in my opinion) there are good parts as well. My 19 year-old son is able to stay on his father's health care policy through his employer, while he works himself up to a full-time position with benefits at his job. His father and the employer pay the premiums. One could argue this does eventually indirectly cost the tax payer, but so does a practicing Catholic who has ten kids on his health insurance. My point is that yes, the complexity of this thing is bad, and no where near perfect, but what we have is not working....at least this is an attempt to fix some problems, albeit I am sure it creates other problems, as you point out.
Edward August 25, 2012 at 05:38 PM
"Nothing comes for free" True. What does it cost our communities and societies when a young person, under 26, who can't afford insurance, is stricken with cancer? You might say, let him or her die. Fine. What does that cost us as a society? What does it cost us our society when we create an entire generation of student loan indentured slaves? They can't move out of mom's basement, can't buy homes, can't start families. What does that cost us? The problem with austerity is that it costs us. Creating two classes -- the wealthy and the serfs -- will cost us in the long run. Hugely. Think about it.
TaterSalad August 25, 2012 at 06:12 PM
The United States is information hungry................on Barack Obama and the left wing media is going whack-o because the President is now being exposed for what he is................a Marxist. The documentary 2016 is breaking all attendance records: http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Hollywood/2012/08/25/Box-Office-Aug-25-2012
Orono September 02, 2012 at 04:22 PM
Susan said: "I'm just a little tired of people saying the man can't run on his record" He, himself, isnt running on his record. Given his desire to toot his own horn, dont you think he would be listing all these wonderful things if they truly were actually good.
Orono September 02, 2012 at 04:28 PM
Edward - I know you think you are saving a bunch of money already, but given that Obamacare doesnt start until 2014, and given your history of having very little knowledge about anything, I think you are full of crap, again.
Susan September 02, 2012 at 04:30 PM
Point taken, Orono. Being as I haven't been at all his campaign speeches (and don't have the time to watch them all), I will wait to see what he has to say at the convention. Too bad your guy was overshadowed on his big night. ;-) Yeah, it's a silly point, but I couldn't resist.
Orono September 02, 2012 at 04:43 PM
Seriously Edward, what is my fair share? I already pay 35%. Isnt that enough for you? I pay both a higher percentage and (Im guessing) a whole lot more, in taxes. Edward, I am truly sorry your life didnt plan out the way you desired but to penalize me and think that me paying more will solve your issues, is pathetic. Re-Read your posts. You are myopic on your desire to penalize those with more than you. Grow up Edward and face the fact that some of us have more than you. For me to lower my tax rate from 35% to 15% would be extremely difficult. To pretend that we all pay only 15% is simply a defense mechanism you try to use to make your greedy and jealous little self feel better.
Orono September 02, 2012 at 04:56 PM
The two classes are being created by your president. If your child is saddled with huge student loan debts, I blame you. My son graduated Stanford completely debt free. I gave him half of his tuition. He used scholarships and money he saved to cover the rest. Had he not been able to cover the balance, he would have gone to a school less expensive. The point is, I actually was a parent to my son and helped him realize his responsibility. He researched what his loan payments would be and didnt want to handcuff himself. When I see students leaving college with hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt, I blame to stupid parents for allowing it to happen.
Orono September 02, 2012 at 05:03 PM
Susan, I just spent a week at a conference with other business owners discussing the effects of Obamacare on a small business. The cost to me is way beyond even what I thought it would cost me. I can share some of the information later.
Susan September 02, 2012 at 05:06 PM
Thanks, I will be doing some hiring myself, this year. Although I am no where near fifty employees, I would like to get some insight from someone who is.

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